In the ever-accelerating complexities of our world, certain principles stand out as timeless truths and ‘certainties’ to contrast with the ever-growing uncertainties. These axioms, or super-principles, resonate deeply and should be essential guides to our thinking, actions and decisions. I have five big axioms that I use in Thinking Ahead work that I would personally go to the stake for.
- You can’t solve wicked problems using innocent thinking
Wicked problems are complex, multifaceted predicaments that defy simple solutions. They are a growing challenge that is more numerous and vexatious. They are characterized by their interconnectedness, ambiguity and resistance to straightforward answers. Innocent thinking, which relies on simplistic or naive approaches, can’t tackle these challenges. Instead, we need sophisticated, nuanced strategies that consider the broader system and apply collective action methods.
For instance, climate change is the quintessential wicked problem. Humanity is out of luck on this one – the myriad of variables, complexity of science and the social and political blocks define a massive predicament facing us. To have any hope of addressing climate we need to think critically, embrace complexity, recontextualise the problem as one that is deeply shared and bigger than all of us and seek to address it through collective action. We did that with the Paris Agreement at COP21, we need a second round.
2. What gets measured get managed
Yes, data is important but you don’t want to let it take over. It should not be skewing what you should be doing.
Yes, data is important but you don’t want to let it take over. It should not be skewing what you should be doing. When the numbers are too dominant, you can hit the target but miss the point. This is ‘Munchkinning’ – the practice of exploiting the rules of a system to gain an advantage, often at the expense of the intended spirit or purpose of those rules.
At the Institute for Marine Mammal Studies, dolphins were trained to collect litter from their pool in exchange for fish. One particularly clever dolphin named Kelly figured out that she could tear larger pieces of litter into smaller pieces to receive more fish. Kelly would hide large pieces of litter under a rock and then tear off small pieces to bring to the trainers one at a time.
3. Joined-up multiplication beats siloed addition
Collaboration is key to achieving greater impact. When individuals and organizations work together, their combined efforts can produce results that far exceed the sum of their isolated contributions.
In the corporate world, this principle is evident in the success of cross-functional teams. By bringing together diverse perspectives and expertise, these teams can tackle complex projects more effectively than if each department worked in isolation. The synergy created through collaboration leads to innovative solutions and enhanced outcomes. The COVID vaccines are a text book example where unprecedented speed of progress followed unprecedented collaboration between governments, pharmaceutical companies and research institutions worldwide. By pooling resources and knowledge, they achieved what would have been impossible for any single entity working alone.
4. Reconciling same as ever with different this time
Balancing tradition with innovation is a delicate but essential task. While it’s important to honour proven methods and principles, we must also be open to change and willing to embrace new approaches. This axiom emphasizes the need to expect the expected and the unexpected.
Think tipping points; multiple small changes trigger mega-shifts; essentially when linear trends go non-linear. In the context of leadership, this means maintaining core values and principles while adapting to evolving circumstances. Effective leaders understand the importance of continuity and stability, but they also recognize the need for flexibility and responsiveness in a world with rising uncertainties and declining truths. In four words, the need is critical thinking, leadership courage. The leadership mantra is expecting the unexpected; and shaping it.
5. Go where the puck is going to be (Gretzky’s Law)
This famous quote from hockey legend Wayne Gretzky encapsulates the importance of foresight and anticipation. Rather than reacting to the present, we should strive to predict future trends and position ourselves accordingly. This proactive approach allows us to stay ahead of the curve and seize emerging opportunities.
In business, this principle is crucial for strategic planning and innovation. Companies that can anticipate market shifts and consumer needs are better positioned to thrive in a competitive landscape. The secret sauce to anticipation is knowing the motivational effects that guide people. Basically, ‘people respond to incentives, the rest is commentary’ – the one-line definition of economics according to Steven Landsburg in the Armchair Economist.
Conclusion
These axioms serve as guiding principles for navigating the complexities of our world.
While I am seriously worried by the increasing uncertainty evident in the world, I draw considerable comfort and practical benefit from these relatively simple, timeless principles.
How are we eating our cooking? Thinking Ahead projects are most at home with the scariest, hairiest challenges where these maxims have been ever-present.
You can’t solve wicked problems using innocent thinking is the central philosophy that guided us into the 3D investing proposition that has gathered so much momentum.
What gets measured gets managed was the source of the thinking in the pioneering work at USS adopting balanced scorecards.
Joined-up multiplication beats siloed addition has been widely applied in the Total Portfolio Approach work that Thinking Ahead has driven for two decades now from Future Fund and New Zealand Super to TCorp and RailPen.
Reconciling same as ever with different this time is the central principle underlying the Risk 2.0 initiative which we see as our next big idea.
Go where the puck is going to be (Gretzky’s Law) is lived and breathed by Thinking Ahead every day – it’s on the tin.
It simply isn’t that simple is a truism. But then so is, it doesn’t have to be that complicated.
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