Research

It’s story time: The why, how and what of scenario learning

This paper looks into the why, what and how of scenario learning. 

What’s in this paper?

1. Why scenario learning is valuable
Scenarios help decision-makers steer a course between tunnel vision (a single prediction) and indecision faced with an uncertain and unbounded future. Scenario learning also supports a culture of self-reflection and adaptation.

2. What scenario learning is (and isn’t) 

Scenario learning is about making explicit the dominant organisational mindset – and challenging it. Scenario learning is not a purely intellectual exercise. To facilitate organisational learning, a social process is essential.

3. How scenario learning can be done
We do not use scenarios well in our industry. Too much focus is placed on analysis rather than learning. We propose a workshop as a pragmatic way for investment organisations to explore the value available through scenario learning.