The sooner we realise that our narratives and conceptual models applied to climate change must evolve, the higher the chances of coping with it.
An interplay of different disciplines is required to achieve that goal. Humans must employ the entire spectrum of their knowledge. Science alone is not enough to increase the perception and the ‘meaning-making’ around climate change.
The aim of this piece is to introduce that breath into the analysis of climate change and face it for what it is – something extremely complex and only partially understandable. So, let’s start by considering five distinctive traits of climate change.
- The morphing impact of climate change
We constantly become increasingly entangled with climate change. Both as we learn about it, and because it increases in scope and scale each day. For example, even 10 years ago most of us would not have discussed global carbon emissions but now many of us want to know the carbon footprint of any product we might buy.
Moreover, climate change can upset our intuitions. Think about cutting-edge carbon capture technologies. They may be able to remove some carbon emissions from the atmosphere, but the production of the machines will release carbon emissions, will deplete resources and will increase energy use (as will their operation). Our intuition that these technologies are helpful may not be well founded.
- The scale of climate change
Climate change is difficult to make sense of because it operates across vastly different scales. It has a planetary scale, and it also impacts the subsistence farmer on their small plot of land. The planet may be experiencing above average rainfall but the farmer a drought.
- The phasing of climate change
Another significant trait of climate change is that it occurs in phases. For example, crop yields might increase in certain agricultural fields due to increasing temperature (phase 1). However, further temperature rises may lead to crop failures (phase 2).
- The time frame of climate change
Carbon dioxide hangs around in the atmosphere for a very long time. Different processes remove it at different rates. The fastest is dissolving into the oceans, and this will remove up to 80% within a few hundred years. The slowest is rock formation which occurs over hundreds of thousands of years. Our thermal blanket will be with us for a very long time. So, what is at stake here is our ability to comprehend such vast timescales.
- The interconnectedness of climate change
Climate change is often experienced indirectly. For example, changes in ocean temperatures can impact the migration patterns of fish, which in turn can impact the livelihoods of fishermen who depend on those fish.
This aspect completes the puzzle of how difficult climate change is to understand fully. We should take this difficulty as an awakening call. For too long we have considered the environment, the planet, and the ecosystem as having infinite ability to self-absorb, self-repair, and self-regenerate.
Humans are quite small
Despite human confidence in our own powerfulness, there is a large asymmetry arising from all this. The melting of Arctic sea ice, biodiversity loss, extreme hurricanes and floodings are profoundly disproportionate to human beings.
How useful is our knowledge, despite its exponential recent growth – and what do concepts like ‘horizon’, ‘world’, ‘environment’, ‘sustainability’ even mean in the light of entities such as climate change?
Investing in the awakening era
Pick sustainable investing. Are we sure about what we are supposed to sustain by allocating capital? Sustainability, sustinere from Latin, envisages conserving, taking care of something to pass it on into the future. But what do and can we carry over into the future?
The integration of impact into the classical risk-return (2D) mandate is a key step the industry can employ to reframe the investment boundaries and intentionally target real-world effects.
The investment industry must also reboot its entire (climate) language – the proliferation of taxonomies, interpretations, classifications, ratings are part of the problem, not part of the solution.
Without proper language as well as systems thinking, cross-sectional skills, multi-stakeholder engagement and collaboration, the investment industry cannot even think of climate change.
No short-termism must be allowed in the room either. Complexity does not yield to quick fixes. It requires time and long-term vision. Complexity requires rejecting any form of aggression and dominance towards reality. The first step for the investment industry will be to help restore some stability.
Is there anything less anthropocentric than waiting?
Criticisms about this approach being too passive must be fought with the belief in the power of reflection against capitulation. We, humans, may not be able to fully understand climate change, but our deep thinking can help reorient our path – part of which is capital being responsible for its impact. Because extinction is irreversible, we must limit the likelihood of choosing one of those paths.